The 2026 CRE Maturity Wall: Refinancing a Loan That Comes Due

The "maturity wall" is the large volume of commercial real estate loans coming due over a short period. Many of those loans were made when interest rates were far lower than they have been since 2022, so a loan that was comfortable at origination can fail to refinance for its full balance at maturity — even when the property is performing and the borrower has never missed a payment.

This guide covers what the 2026 numbers show, how to work out whether your own loan has a refinancing gap, and the ways owners close one.

How Much Commercial Debt Matures in 2026

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual survey of loan maturity volumes, $875 billion — 17% of the $5.0 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages held by lenders and investors — is scheduled to mature in 2026. That is 9% less than the $957 billion scheduled for 2025, but still an elevated volume.

How much matures depends heavily on who holds the loan:

• Banks and thrifts (depositories): $396 billion, 21% of their commercial mortgage balances
• CMBS, CLOs and other asset-backed securities: $200 billion, 25%
• Credit companies, warehouse lines and other lenders: $163 billion, 29%
• Life insurance companies: $76 billion, 10%
• Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and Ginnie Mae (multifamily and health care): $39 billion, 4%

It also varies by property type: the MBA survey shows 30% of hotel/motel loan balances, 23% of industrial, 17% of office and 13% of multifamily scheduled to mature in 2026.

The pattern follows loan structure. Agency multifamily and life company loans tend to have long terms, so a small share comes due in any one year. Bank loans commonly carry 5- to 10-year terms with a balloon payment, so a bigger share of bank balances comes due each year than at life companies or the agencies. Banks also have the largest dollar volume maturing, while CMBS/CLO pools and credit companies have the largest shares of their balances coming due.

Why a Performing Loan Can Still Fail to Refinance

At maturity, the lender that refinances your balloon underwrites the loan from scratch at the new rate and the property’s current value. Two limits decide how much it will lend, and both can move against you even if nothing is wrong with the property:

• DSCR: a higher rate means a higher payment on the same loan amount, so the same net operating income supports less debt.
• LTV: when investors demand a higher cap rate, the same income produces a lower appraised value, so the same LTV percentage produces a smaller loan.

If the smaller of those two limits is below your balloon balance, the difference is the refinancing gap — cash that has to come from somewhere for the loan to be paid off.

Worked Example: A 2021 Loan Maturing in 2026

These numbers are illustrative assumptions, not quotes or current market rates. The calculations use BestLoanUSA’s calculators.

Example: In 2021 an investor bought a property valued at $4,000,000 (a 6.5% cap rate) with a $3,000,000 loan (75% LTV) at an assumed 3.75% fixed rate, 5-year term, 25-year amortization. Net operating income is $260,000.

• Monthly payment: $15,424 — about $185,087 a year, a DSCR of 1.40x (commercial mortgage calculator, DSCR calculator)
• Balloon due at year 5: $2,601,491 — five years of payments reduced the principal by about $400,000

Now refinance that balloon in 2026, assuming a 6.75% rate (for comparison, our rate table shows 6.5–8% for bank 5-year fixed loans and 6.5–7% for life company loans as of September 2026) on a new 25-year amortization, a lender minimum DSCR of 1.25x and maximum LTV of 75%, with NOI unchanged at $260,000:

• Refinancing the full $2,601,491 would cost about $215,688 a year — a DSCR of 1.21x, below the 1.25x minimum. NOI would need to be about $269,610 to support it.
• If the market cap rate for the property has moved from 6.5% to an assumed 7.25%, the same $260,000 of NOI supports a value of about $3,586,000. At 75% LTV that allows about $2,690,000, so LTV is not the problem here (the balloon is 72.5% of the new value).
• The DSCR limit allows a new loan of about $2,508,000 (max loan calculator).

The gap: about $93,000. The property is performing and the owner still has nearly $1 million of equity at the new value, but the new loan is smaller than the old one. The size of the gap is driven by the rate: in the max loan calculator, a half-point lower rate (6.25%) adds roughly $119,000 of loan capacity in this example — enough to close it.

Ways to Close a Refinancing Gap

Bring cash to the closing. The most direct option: pay the balloon down to the new loan amount. In the example above, $93,000 of equity closes the gap on its own. The earlier you know the number, the more ways you have to raise it.

Raise NOI before the new lender underwrites. Lenders size the loan on in-place income. Lease-up, renewals at market rent, or expense reductions completed before the appraisal all increase the loan. In the example, another $10,000 of NOI adds about $96,000 of loan capacity.

Negotiate an extension or modification with the current lender. Some notes include extension options with conditions (a fee, a minimum DSCR, a paydown), and lenders may agree to a short-term extension or restructuring even when the note does not require it. Federal banking regulators have said in a 2023 interagency policy statement that banks which make prudent commercial real estate loan accommodations and workouts after a comprehensive review of the borrower’s finances will not be criticized for doing so, and that modified loans to borrowers who can repay on reasonable terms will not be adversely classified solely because the collateral’s value has fallen below the loan balance. That does not mean a bank must agree — it means an extension request from a borrower with the ability to pay is one the bank can consider.

Use a bridge loan to get to stabilization. If NOI is temporarily low — vacancy, a major tenant leaving, renovation under way — a commercial bridge loan can pay off the maturing loan while you restore income, followed by a permanent loan once the property qualifies. Bridge debt costs more and adds its own maturity date, so it works only with a realistic plan to exit. Our guide to refinancing out of bridge and hard money loans covers that second step.

Add a second layer of capital. On larger properties, mezzanine financing or preferred equity can fill the space between the senior loan and the balloon balance. It is expensive capital and needs the senior lender’s consent, so compare its cost with the cost of bringing cash.

For owner-occupied property, look at SBA programs. SBA 504 and 7(a) loans can refinance owner-occupied commercial real estate under their own eligibility rules, with long repayment terms. See SBA 504 loans and SBA 7(a) loans for the requirements.

Sell on your own timeline. If the numbers don’t work at any reasonable structure, selling before maturity — rather than after a default — preserves the most equity and the most control.

A Maturity Checklist for 2026–2027 Loans

• Find the date and the exact balloon balance. Get them from the note and the servicer, along with any extension options and their conditions.
• Check the prepayment terms. Many notes allow prepayment without penalty only in an open period near maturity — see our guide to commercial loan prepayment penalties.
• Run the refinance math on trailing-12-month NOI at a conservative rate, using the max loan calculator. If the result is below the balloon, you have a gap to plan for.
• Start 12–18 months out. Appraisals, environmental reports and lender underwriting take time. Commercial refinances typically take 30–90 days from a complete application, and longer if a gap has to be solved first.
• Talk to the current lender early if an extension may be needed. A request made well before maturity, with current financials, is a different conversation from one made after the deadline.

If your loan matures in the next 18 months, we can compare refinance options across our network of 30+ lenders and show you where the gap is before the deadline. Start a commercial real estate loan application or read more about commercial real estate refinancing — there are no upfront fees and no hard credit pull to start.

💡 Before you talk to any lender, put your balloon balance, NOI and a conservative rate into the max loan calculator. If the answer is below your balloon, the difference is the number to plan around.

Sources: Maturity volumes — Mortgage Bankers Association, “17 Percent of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Balances to Mature in 2026” (Feb. 9, 2026). Loan accommodations and workouts — OCC, Federal Reserve, FDIC and NCUA, Policy Statement on Prudent Commercial Real Estate Loan Accommodations and Workouts (June 29, 2023). Worked examples use BestLoanUSA’s calculators with assumed rates, NOI and cap rates; they are estimates, not loan offers.